10th May 2019
After a bullish start to the year in which assets rebounded from their December lows, the prospect of a global recession was once again brought to the forefront of investors’ minds at the end of the first quarter. The inversion of the US yield curve – a phenomenon whereby short-term interest rates, and thereby the yield on US government bonds, move above longer-term rates – has been interpreted by some as an expectation of weaker long-term growth, although other commentators have questioned whether the trend was clear enough, or persisted for sufficient time, to become a reliable predictor of recession.
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